Insights from Economists and Experts: Forecasting the Future of the Real Estate Market

The Canadian real estate market has been experiencing much uncertainty, with many people wondering which direction it will go. The market has already seen a drop of 20% from its peak in some cities, but the pause in interest rates could motivate buyers and increase their confidence. 

With much uncertainty surrounding the real estate market, a question was posed to a panel of Canadian economists regarding their predictions for the market in 2023. The panel consisted of notable experts in the field, including Tony Stillo, Director of Canada Economics at Oxford Economics, Stephen Brown, Deputy Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, and Derek Hold, VP and Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank.

When asked about the real estate prediction for 2023, a panel of Canadian economists had a different opinion. According to the experts, Canada’s real estate market will remain in a macro downtrend for all of 2023, with 88% anticipating property prices to decline further. Additionally, 55% of experts believe prices will drop another 10% by the end of 2023 compared to January 2023.

The panel of experts also highlighted that insolvencies would continue to rise in 2023, particularly among heavily indebted homeowners. As households and businesses are forced to incur more debt, maintaining the same living standard amidst rampant inflation has become increasingly difficult. Some families may even be squeezed enough to result in the forced selling of their homes when variable rate mortgages renew.

Despite the significant decline in housing prices, supply remains constrained due to overly restrictive zoning laws in many Canadian municipalities. Once people readjust to the higher interest rates, demand is expected to recover and limit price fall. However, it is still early in the impacts of excessive interest rates, and the employment impacts that will develop are yet to be seen.

Overall, the Canadian real estate market is expected to face continued uncertainty and challenges in 2023. It is expected to remain in a macro downtrend for all of 2023, with property prices anticipated to decline further. Insolvencies are also expected to rise, particularly among heavily indebted homeowners. The market’s recovery may be slow due to overly restrictive zoning laws, but demand is expected to recover once people readjust to the higher interest rates. As the impacts of excessive interest rates continue to unfold, how the market will develop remains to be seen.